Be Quiet Chicken Little. The Sky is NOT Falling

The title of this KCM blog says it all!



I had to share



Be Quiet Chicken Little. The Sky is NOT Falling



So what do you say Chicken Little???



Call me today  if you have questions:  757 580-6546

Sellers: Market Looking Up for YOU

You will note some very interesting changes in the comments by Jim Belote's update.   Though still shouting the improvements in home values, he has noted the bell call for all home owners that wish to sell:
     
          1)  Improvement in Home Values have many sellers
                 with equity in house now
          2)  Low housing inventory has constricted contracts
                 due lack to choice available to buyers

What more could be said to encourage an home owner to sell???

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of  April 1, 2013 MARKET RECAP Still More of the Same   For the past year, we've been reporting on home prices generally moving in one direction – up. This is certainly preferable to the years leading up to early 2012, when we were reporting on prices generally moving in one direction – down. As for the current price trend, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows prices continued to move higher in January. What's more, prices moved higher at an accelerating rate. All 20 cities the index covers posted price gains for the second-straight month. Year over year, prices were up nearly 10% – the largest annual increase in seven years. Data from Lender Processing Services also support a sustained price trend. Its data, which focuses on non-distressed transactions in 15,500 zip codes, show the average home price increased 0.3% to $208,000 in January. Year over year, the average price is up 6.7%. New homes are leading the price charge. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show the median sales price of a new home soared to $246,800 in February, a 9% increase over the median price of $226,400 in January. We're not surprised new home prices are surging. Demand is improving, thanks in part to more homeowners moving into a positive equity position. At the same time, there's a dearth of new homes on the market. The downside is that lack of inventory is hurting sales growth. The annualized sales rate of 411,000 new homes in February is 4.6% lower than the 431,000-home sales rate in January. Inventory has improved, but not by much. New homes for sale increased to 152,000 units in February from 150,000 units in January. The combination of a dip in sales and a rise in supply put inventory at 4.4 months in February compared to 4.2 months in January. We expect low inventory will continue to restrict sales growth over the next couple months. Sales of existing homes are also likely to remain restricted. Limited buyer choices have constrained contract signings. The NAR's Pending Home Sales Index dipped 0.4% in February. The index points to low-to-flat sales growth as we head into the spring selling season. The upside to stagnating sales and increased demand is continued price gains. Rising prices will lift more homeowners into positive equity, which in turn, will motive more homeowners interested in moving to list their properties. Rising prices will lead to more supply. We mentioned many times during the grips of the hard sell-off of 2008 and 2009 that prices would fall only so far before buyers would rush in to soak up the excess supply. Rising prices will have a similar salutary effect, only in reverse – rising prices, rising supply. As for mortgage rates, we expect the trend to remain flat at the new lower level. The banking crisis in Cyprus sent money to U.S. Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities, which helped reverse the rising-rate trend. We expect rates to hold these levels for at least a couple weeks. We say that because the influential 10-year Treasury note is again yielding below 1.9% (two weeks ago, it was yielding over 2%). The low yield should hold, because once the crisis in Cyprus passes, it's looking more likely a developing banking crisis in Spain will take its place. Economic Indicator Release Date and Time Consensus Estimate Analysis Factory Orders (February) Tues., April 2, 10:00 am, ET 2.5% (Increase) Moderately Important. A pick up in capital goods and big-ticket consumer items points to strengthening first-quarter economic growth. Mortgage Applications Wed., April 3, 7:00 am, ET None Important. Lower rates, instigated by events in Cyprus, will spur purchase and refinance activity. Employment Situation (March) Fri., April 5, 8:30 am, ET Unemployment Rate: 7.8% Payrolls: 190,000 (Increase) Very Important. An unexpectedly strong gain in job growth will pressure interest rates to move higher. Consumer Credit (February) Fri., April 5, 3:00 pm, ET $10 Billion (Increase) Important. Gains in non-revolving credit suggest consumers are more confident in the economic outlook. Too Much of a Good Thing? Robert Shiller, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, has been issuing a warning the past couple months: Don't get snookered by rising home prices. In short, Shiller is skeptical that the price trend will last. Shiller's doubts center on the Federal Reserve, which continues to purchase U.S. Treasury notes and bonds and mortgage-backed securities at the unprecedented rate of $85 billion a month. The Fed's purchases, which are financed with newly minted money, have kept mortgage rates low and liquidity (money supply) high. This has obviously been good for housing, but Shiller's concern is that the Fed could be creating another bubble. We've wondered the same thing too. A lot of money is flowing into housing. Is that money distorting the market? We think there are a couple extenuating factors. For one, the housing market is still operating at a sub-optimal level (sales and construction) compared to historical norms. And though mortgage rates are at multi-decade lows, many people are still unable to take advantage of them, thus keeping demand constrained (though we don't necessarily view this as a positive). This is an unusual, even unprecedented, market, to state the obvious, but it's not a bubble market, and we don't expect it will become one any time soon. EQUAL HOUSING LENDER This Newsletter is for informational purposes only. The information contained herein may not be applicable to every situation or jurisdiction and we urge you to consult your professional advisor prior to acting on information contained herein. The content, accuracy and opinions expressed herein are not verified or endorsed by the sponsor hereo

Optimistic Start to 2013: Facts and Figures

      From the source!!  The Real Estate Information Network is the local MLS service for Hampton Roads(Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, New Port News, Hampton and Smithfield).  

Great news for the start of 2013!  This start continues a trend present since Fall 2011.                                              


             



                             An Optimistic Start to 2013 
                                                     (Virginia Beach, Virginia – February 2013)  

The Hampton Roads real estate market is off to an optimistic start for 2013. The number of
residential homes for sale significantly dropped when compared to January 2012, resulting in a lower
month’s supply of inventory. Residential settled sales and residential under contracts both experienced
double digit percentage year-over-year increases.  

The number of residential homes for sale in January 2013 was down 10.75% when compared to
the same time last year. Of the regions seven  major cities (Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News,
Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach) Chesapeake and Virginia Beach experienced the largest
year-over-year declines in residential active listings at 19.01% and 16.87% respectively. Portsmouth was the only city not to experience a year-over-year decline as residential active listings increased 2.05%.  The drop in active listings has resulted in a low 6.18 months’ supply inventory which is down 17.6% from January 2012 when it was 7.5 months.

Residential under contracts showed promising numbers during January 2013 with an increase of
14.14% when compared to January 2012. Suffolk and Chesapeake saw the largest year-over-year
increases of 39.74% and 25.54% respectively, while Hampton experienced the smallest year-over-year increase of 3.74%. Portsmouth was the only city not to see a year-over-year gain, with residential under contracts down 14.12%.

Residential settled sales round off the month’s positive trend.  January 2013’s residential settled
sales increased 20.66% when compared to January 2012. Suffolk and Hampton substantially contributed to this increase as they saw year-over-year gains in residential settled sales of 59.26% and 40% respectively. Norfolk experienced the smallest year-over-year gain of 3.87% and Portsmouth saw no gain at all as residential settled sales dropped 1.18% year-over-year. The median residential sales price is currently $193,000, a 10.63% increase from $174,450 in January 2012.  

The distressed homes market, those that are either bank owned or short sales, continue to
impact the region’s real estate market. Distressed homes accounted for 34.88% of residential settled
sales during January 2013. This is the highest percentage since February 2012 when distressed homes
accounted for 36.39% of residential settled sales. As for residential homes for sale, 27% of the listings in January 2013 were distressed properties. This percentage has fluctuated between 22% and 28% over.

The last 18 months. There appears to be an upward trend in both active and sold distressed residential
properties starting in August 2012.
   
January 2013 Highlights
                                                    Listings
Residential active listings decreased, 10.75% year-over-year to 10,169 (January 2013) from 11,394 (January  2012).  

                                     Under Contract (Pending) Residential Sales
Total residential under contract sales increased by 14.14% when compared to January 2012 (1,663 vs. 1,457).
 
                                                      Sales
Total property sales and total residential sales increased when compared to January 2012 showing increases of  21.23% and 20.66% respectively.

                                                   Inventory
There is currently 6.18  months’ inventory of residential homes on the market in the Hampton Roads area, an increase  from last month (5.91) and down 17.6% from January 2012 when it was 7.5 months.
   
January 2013 Summary All Categories

                                                       January 2013  January 2012    Percent Change

Total Property Active Listings              12,623          13,959              -9.57%
Total Property Pending Sales                  1,755            1,521              15.38%
Total Residential Pending Sales             1,663             1,457              14.14%
Total Property Sales                               1,405             1,159              21.23%

Total Residential New Construction Sales      185          147               25.85%
Total Residential Sales                                1,349        1,118               20.66%
Median Residential Sales Price              $193,000     $174,450          10.63%
Months’ Supply Inventory                              6.18          7.5                 -17.6%
 
* Total Property statistics include all property types (Residential, Commercial, Duplex, Apartment and Land & Farms), resale and new construction.
* Months’ Supply Inventory estimates the number of months it will take to deplete current active inventory based on the prior 12 months average sales activity.

About REIN
Real Estate Information Network, Inc., (REIN) serves real estate brokers in the Tidewater / Hampton
Roads area of Virginia from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south to the North Carolina border.
REIN is an independent MLS owned by broker stockholder members. Currently there are approximately 530 real estate firms with 650 offices, 5700 real estate agents, and 150 appraiser members using REIN.