National Home Price Index

NATIONAL HOME PRICE INDEX UPDATED - COOL WIDGET!

Topic Summary: Every month the government publishes home price/value data on single  family homes. It's important to see the trend in your area over time and not be overly concerned with month over month data. Fire up this cool widget to see your home's value since you bought your home. Remember, real estate is all "local" issue and you may want to ask your HomeActions sponsor for a in-depth value of your home which many times will be more accurate. On the left, just click the email link! The Home Price Index is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It serves as a timely and accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels.  The HPI is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family houses in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions and in smaller areas. The HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency(FHFA) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home Price Widget. This  widget will tell you how well you fared since you bought your home using the historical data that the government collects. Remember this is just an estimate and does not take into consideration any improvements you may have made. Video on using the widget Home Price Widget-Get It  HERE          After you click CALCULATE, a chart of your Home's appreciation will be delivered FULL ARTICLE SAVE ARTICLE EMAIL ME SHARE THIS Your Comments   Is this article valuable to you? Yes No Maybe Is this item worth sharing with other friends? Yes No Maybe Can you see this item helping you with homeownership? Yes No Maybe Courtesy of Al Clark's Home Action Newsletter!!!

Be Positive!!! You Just Got to Believe!!

Every day, we hear some comment on the real estate market.  Most it is negative.


Jim Belote, Union Mortgage, has a great update on part of the commentary...that related to homeowners "underwater".  As he notes, it could be overstated and the "dramatic" element of people walking away is simply an irrational response to a given dilemna.


You have to read to the end. As he states so well, the fear of today is ridiculous. In three to five years, buyers are going to be doing hand springs for buying a house at this time with these rates.

MARKET RECAP

Negative equity pushed aside home price trends as the hot topic this past week. CoreLogic, which had a lot to say the previous week on prices, also had a lot to say about negative equity.


CoreLogic reports that 22.7 percent of all U.S. homeowners owed more than what they owned at the end of the first quarter of 2011 (which is actually an improvement from the 23.1 percent posted in the first quarter of 2010). CoreLogic states that 10.9 million borrowers are underwater and another 2.5 million borrowers are in a near-negative equity position, defined as having less than 5-percent positive equity.


We are obviously on the inflated end of the negative-equity scale, considering that CoreLogic was reporting 7.5 million borrowers were in a negative-equity position in 2008. However, do elevated negative-equity levels mean we are looking at another surge in foreclosures? Not according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston , which studied the relationship between the two. Based on data from the 1990s, the Boston Fed found that fewer than 10 percent of homeowners underwater lost their homes to foreclosure.


Self-interest, not surprisingly, was the deciding factor. Fed economists found that borrowers with negative equity who had ample liquid wealth would usually find it in their economic interest to stay in their homes. Economic interest is usually tied to the job market and regional economic growth. The good news is that job and economic growth for the country as a whole continue to trend higher. The bad news is that they haven't been trending quite as high in the past month.


As for mortgage rates, they continue to trend lower. Rates dropped again this past week to hit their lows for the year. We've obviously been on the wrong side of this bet over the past couple months. Given the Federal Reserve's massive injection of money into the banking system, the rising costs of many consumer staples, and the expectations for economic growth, we thought we would be looking at rates a quarter to a half percentage point higher than what we had at the start of the year.


The economic variables noted above have been overpowered by debt worries in Europe and the various crises in the Middle East , which have many investors flocking to the haven of U.S. government debt. The influx of money into U.S. debt markets coupled with slack aggregate mortgage demand has pushed mortgage rates lower. That said, high money levels, rising prices, and economic growth remain, which is to say that they are capable of moving to the foreground and pressuring interest rates higher in coming months.




Economic  IndicatorRelease


Date and TimeConsensus


EstimateAnalysis


Producer


Price Index


(May)Tues., June 14,


8:30 am, etAll Goods: 0.2% (Increase)


Core: 0.2%


(Increase)Important. Productivity gains have kept price inflation in check, but rising energy costs could move prices higher.


Retail Sales


(May)Tues., June 14,


8:30 am, et0.3%


(Decrease)Moderately Important. Rising prices are reducing overall consumer demand.


Mortgage Applications Wed., June 15,


7:00 am, etNone Important. Purchase applications ended flat for May, but the monthly trend remains up.


Consumer


Price Index


(May)Wed., June 15,


8:30 am, etAll Goods: 0.0%


Core: 0.2%


(Increase)Important. Retail prices suggest inflation is running higher than the CPI estimates.


House Builders Index


(June)Wed., June 15,


10:00 am, et16 Index Important. Low inventory levels and price stability should boost future demand.


Housing Starts


(May) Thurs., June 16,


8:30 am, et 535,000 (Annualized) Important. Starts remain volatile and unable to establish a trend.


Leading Indicators


(May) Fri., June 17,


10:00 am, et 0.2%


(Increase) Moderately Important. The indicators point to slowing near-term economic growth.

Still Sold on Real Estate

Over the past six months, we've proselytized frequently on why we think real estate is today's best investment. The Wall Street Journal, in an article titled "Why It's Time To Buy," encapsulates and expounds many of the reasons we've previously stated on why we think real estate is such a wonderful opportunity.


For one, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20-percent lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12-percent lower than the 1989-2004 average, according to Moody's Analytics. Moody's data also show that household formation increased to nearly 950,000 last year, and should average 1.2 million over the next decade. Greater demand leads to higher prices, and, eventually, to greater new-home supply.


The short-term outlook looks discouraging, though: job growth has slowed and foreclosures and inventory still weigh on pricing. However, longer-term - three-to-five years out - job growth won't be sluggish and inventory will have returned to more normal levels. In other words, buyers today will likely be looking at positive equity in the not-to-distant future. This is an important message to convey to our buy-side clients, many of whom remain hesitant to make what will likely be a very profitable investment.





Agree?? Disagree??? No matter what the reports say in the next week, long term is positive.







Bryan Cerny, Associate Broker, GRI, ABR, SRES, SFR



Rose &Womble Realty, Chesapeake, VA



Licensed in VA & NC

Moving Forward...Always Forward

Moving Forward...Don't Look Back (edit/delete)

More often than not, we all love to play "Monday Morning Quarterback".  We love to rehash the plays that failed and those that were are highest moments of success.

And the Real Estate Market faces the same dilemna day in and day out.  When the market was crazy in 2004/2005, buyers and sellers saw the quick sales pace so differently.  The buyers moaned about the home they bought was there third or eighth offer and they finally got a house, wondering in the coming months if it was a good purchase or just bought because "it was the only one we could land".

The sellers estatic at their good fortune of a quick sale at a price they never thought they would get soon feel like they fumbled the ball.  Their old neighbor only three months time sells his home for $10,000 more!  "Oh, did we sell too quickly??  Did we leave money on the table?"  the seller might have wondered as he rehashed the events.

Neither party frequently retained the joy of the transaction by second guessing the result.  Not much is to be gained by this action but it continues.

Though interest rates are as low as they have been in 50 years, inventories lower than 2010 and market conditions in many areas of the country have improved, "Monday Morning Quarterbacks" abound.  Who hasn't heard some one moan about the impact of short sales and foreclosures on home values while buyers snap up these bargain(with the challenges involved) thus reducing the possible glut of depressed values!!!

Or the home owner with $50,000 equity wondering if just would have sold two years earlier when prices were "stronger" that doesn't realize he would have paid more for the house he purchased at that time.

Rather than looking in the rear view mirror, march ahead!!!   Realize in Real Estate as in life, the present reality is the "reality" we live in.  There is no such thing as the "New" Reality....it just  is.

If you are ready to move forward, knowing that is the only way to go, you are ready to take advantage of this market's current reality...the only one there is!!!

Bryan Cerny, Associate Broker, GRI, ABR, SRES, SFR
Rose &Womble Realty, Chesapeake, VA
Licensed in VA & NC

 

Market Realities

Hampton Roads Market Realities (edit/delete)

With 2011 Real Estate Market unknown, we have to look at the results of 2010 to get a sense of our direction and in the current conditions to know where we are headed.

In a great Rose & Womble meeting today, we learned that the New Homes division was up over 4% in units last year and there is only 3.5 months inventory at present.  In addition, the New Homes division saw:

                          

 11% Increase in sales of home in $350,000-$400,000 range

 31% Increase in sales of homes in $400,000-$450,000 range

As Van Rose, President New Homes, these results are a great indication that the market is turning a corner as buyers are feeling the improvements in the market and are confident about moving forward to purchase that new home they have wanted.

With the pent up demand for home purchases caused by the uncertainty and anxiety of the  past three years, there are people the need and will buy homes in 2011.  Buyers have begun to peak their heads out with the growing confidence and the new homes data shows it.

Both New Homes and Resale will benefit in 2011 from:

•     Low New Home Inventory
•     Good Inventory of Homes Priced to Sell(Values are at 2004/2005 levels)
•     Low, low interest rates
•     Improved Buyer Confidence

A recent survey cited by Van, noted 90% of people said it was a great time to buy real estate.   In addition, Van showed a chart noting that a home purchased in 2001 was still valued higher in 2011($50,000 on average) than it would have been if growth rate was 4% over the 10 year period.  Thus, numerous home owners have amply equity in his/her home to act on his/her interest to buy a new home.

In addition, this home owner and renters looking to buy their 1st home can realize that though home values have softened in the past three years, real estate remains an excellent long term investment.      

             

So if you are one of the millions that have wanted to know the right time to buy...YOU FOUND IT!  

 

Where are We at....Time to Buy or Sell..Time to Stand Still??

We seem to be in uncertain times:

        The Negative

    *  Stock Market continues to be unsteady
    *  Crazy bonuses for Banks that had a wonderful year while many still are unemployed.
    *  Congress can't decide if we need healthcare reformed..really..or agreed to simply talk about it with all
            our best interests at heart.
    *  Oil prices are in the $70/barrell range but our fuel price remain high.
    *  New Home starts(builder and banks confidence?) are down.
    *  Toyota, a reputable line of automobiles, suddenly can stop and are recalling 100,000s of cars.
    *  Wicked Winter Weather threatened citrus fruits and like in Florida and shut down major metro area
            in Northeast(perhaps you are still digging out!)
    *  Haiti gets clobbered by a earthquake causing dire straights for an entire population of poor people.

         The Positive
   
    *  Banks are beginning to loan again..if your credit shines
    *  New rules for Short Sales that will aid Sellers and Buyers and streamline the process have been
            approved and will go into effect in April.
    *  Toyoto has finally admitted it goofed and working hards to make amends.
    *  Interest Rates stay in 5% rates for home mortgages
    *  $8,000 Tax Credit awaits 1st time Home Buyers
    *  $6,500 Tax Credit awaits Repeat Buyers that have been lived in and owned their present home for
              five of last 8 years.
    *  Foreclosures have moderated(for the time being)
    *  Home Sales have increased in Hampton Roads and in many other markets each month since May 2009
             (January broke the streak but it is normally a weak month as the holidays distract home buyers).
    *  America's generous response to Haiti Relief efforts
    *  New Orleans victory in the Super Bowl(even if a Colts fan):  A game well played that was won by a
            team representing a city that really needed to win one!
   
So what to make of it all??  It will really depend on a few factors, such as:

     *  Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist?
     *  Do you need to retire within 5 years or are retired now?
     *  Do you invest in real estate or are you looking to buy a new home?
     *  Are you employed?
     *  Do you have health care?
     *  Do you want to share with the world what you have?

As your answers could be different from mine or a million other people, only you can determine if this is a great time to stay in the stock market, complain about gas prices and those darn Congressman or to buy an investment property or your new home.

So how do you see it???